#1

very early. Clint Bowyer started third and

in Here is your first Forum Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:24 am
by sakura698 • 630 Posts

California Chrome is the 3-5 morning line favorite to become the 12th Triple Crown winner in racing history. Cheap Vapormax 2019 . However, the last seven odds-on Belmont Stakes favorites have failed to win and complete the magnificent feat. You can watch the Belmont Stakes on TSN this Saturday, with coverage beginning at 2:30pm et/11:30am pt. One has to go all the way back to 1978 when Affirmed held off Alydar at 3-5 to find the last odds-on betting choice to grab hold of the final leg of horse racings Triple Crown. In fact, Affirmed was the fourth straight odds-on winner following the footsteps of Seattle Slew (2-5), Bold Forbes (4-5) and Secretariat (1-9). Between the years 1958 and 1971, only one of eight odds-on betting favorites in the Belmont came home on top - Damascus (4-5) in 1967. Finally, half of the first 14 odds-on choices crossed the wire first. Overall, this type of favorite holds just 12 victories in 33 overall starts. It must be mentioned that there were two odds-on choices in 1957. Gallant Man (19-20) crossed the wire first while Bold Ruler (17-20) finished third. The bottom line is there have been only 12 winners out of 32 races since mutuels began in New York in 1940. Thats a 37.5 percent winning percentage. Moreover, of the 19 horses in line for the Triple Crown sweep, just six came home victorious. That amounts to a 33 percent winning percentage. Five of the Kentucky Derby-Preakness winners ran second in the Belmont Stakes with Real Quiet (4-5 in 1998) coming the closest, losing by a nose to Victory Gallop. The four others were Pensive (1-2 in 1944), Tim Tam (3-20 in 1958), Sunday Silence (4-5 in 1989) and Smarty Jones (2-5 in 2004). Three more finished third - Northern Dancer (4-5 in 1964), Spectacular Bid (1-5 in 1979) and Pleasant Colony (4-5 in 1981). Five finished off the board, including Big Brown (2008) - the last horse vying for the Triple Crown that ran in the Belmont (Ill Have Another in 2012 was injured and did not race in the final leg). There also is another key factor that plays against California Chrome and that is field size. The six Triple Crown winners between 1941 and 1978 won the Belmont Stakes against a combined 27 other horses, which amounts to an average of 3.5 horses per race. The 13 horses that failed to win the Triple Crown had 110 challengers, which means those colts ran against an average of 8.5 horses per race. This year, the Belmont Stakes has a field of 11, which ties for the second- most entrants behind the 1971 edition when Canonero II finished fourth at 3-5. The 1966, 1981 and 1998 renewals also had 10 other horses competing against odds-on Derby-Preakness winners Kauai King, Pleasant Colony and Real Quiet, respectively. All three of those horses lost the Belmont Stakes. California Chrome is by far the most talented member of this 3-year-old crop. He owns tremendous tactical speed, which should place him on or just off the early lead. Only Samraat and Tonalist, and to a less extent, General a Rod, have decent gate speed, so jockey Victor Espinoza will not have much of a crowd in front of him. We will see if the colt is good enough to overcome what so many have failed to accomplish over the last 36 years. THE PRETENDERS There are two horses that have no business being in the race - Matterhorn and Matuszak. The former has not won since last November while the latter hasnt won since September. Three other colts have better bodies of work than that pair but should still finish off the board. They are General a Rod, Commissioner and Samraat. General a Rod has the pedigree to be successful at the 1 1/2-mile distance, but he sure does not run like it. It is true he had a terrible trip in the Preakness, but dont look for any improvement from a horse that might not have been entered in the Belmont if his stablemate, Intense Holiday, did not come down with an injury. Commissioner showed more speed in the Peter Pan than he ever had before, but that may have occurred due to the sloppy Belmont surface that day. An argument could be made that a horse not expected to vie for the early lead could jump up and do so and this colt might be the one. Either on the pace or off, dont expect the Todd Pletcher-trained 3-year-old to be around when the true running begins. Samraat ran a very good fifth in the Kentucky Derby - his second straight loss after opening with five wins in his first five outings. His breeding does not suggest he will appreciate the added distance, so it is best to side with others. INTRIGUING POSSIBILITIES Commanding Curve comes into the Belmont Stakes off a second-place finish to California Chrome in the Kentucky Derby. He is one of four horses in the field to have run in the Derby and pass the Preakness. Commanding Curve also had the easiest of trips in the first leg of the Triple Crown, unlike a few others entered in the Belmont. The son of Master Command has been training well and certainly is a horse to use in the exotics. However, he is doubtful to cross the wire first. Ride On Curlin represents the closest finisher to California Chrome considering the latter has strung together six consecutive victories. Nevertheless, the Belmont Stakes will be Ride On Curlins fourth race in the last eight weeks and that might be too much, especially on the heels of a 1 1/2-mile event. THE FINAL FOUR Filling out the final spot in the superfecta will be Tonalist. The Peter Pan winner has done nothing wrong as a 3-year-old, winning two of three starts with a second to Florida Derby winner Constitution in his only other race - an allowance event on a speed-favoring Gulfstream Park track. Three main reasons why he wont hit the board are: 1. his lack of experience (four career races), 2. he will be on the pace and will use too much energy trying to square off with California Chrome, and 3. breaking from the No. 11 post position will make for a longer trip into the first turn. Medal Count ran a very good eighth in the Kentucky Derby considering Danza cut him off approaching the eighth-pole. His momentum was completely stopped and he still finished less than two lengths from finishing fourth. The Dale Romans-trained son of Dynaformer not only should love the 12 furlongs, but he also has been working well at Churchill Downs. Finally, he has had five weeks off after racing three times in a month. That leaves California Chrome and Wicked Strong as the two most probable winners. Not surprisingly, they are the top two choices on the morning line. Wicked Strong has been working out on the Belmont training track, but he is one of only three horses in the field with a win over the main track (Samraat and Tonalist are the other two). The fourth-place Derby finisher broke poorly from the far outside post position on the first Saturday in May and was caught very wide going into the first turn. He eventually closed from 14th to a fourth-place finish at the wire. A better trip is expected on Saturday. Its been 36 years since Affirmed last won the last Triple Crown. Among the horses that have failed have been speed types (Smarty Jones, War Emblem and Sunday Silence), stalkers (Big Brown, Funny Cide, Silver Charm and Spectacular Bid), middle movers (Real Quiet and Charismatic) and closers (Pleasant Colony and Alysheba). California Chrome falls into the first category. If the pace is slow, he might be on the lead. If not, look for him to sit a couple lengths off, as he did in the first two Triple Crown races. A victory on Saturday will put to rest all the talk of having to alter either the distances or the span of time in between the three races. A loss and the discussions will ignite once again. Will he win? That is the million dollar question. Is he a good bet to cross the wire first at odds-on? History says no. THE BELMONT WAGER This will be a winning season regardless of what happens since the $50 wager on the California Chrome-Ride On Curlin exacta came through for a cool $455 return. With a mythical $100 Belmont Stakes wager, bet $35 on a Wicked Strong- California Chrome exacta and $30 the other way. In addition, bet $15 on a California Chrome-Medal Count exacta and $10 the other way. And just in case the favorite fails to fire, use Wicked Strong and Medal Count in a $5 exacta box. Cheap Vapormax Mens . FIFA said the suspension was requested by ethics prosecutor Michael Garcia, making Beckenbauer the first person to be punished as a result of the case. Beckenbauer refused "repeated requests for his assistance, including requests that he provide information during an in-person interview or in response to written questions provided in both English and German," FIFA said in a statement. Wholesale Vapormax Mens . They wanna make t-shirts about it and sell them at our next hockey game..DB: Wow, they want to make t-shirts? That sounds pretty amazing.MS: Yeah, I was also on the Top 10, I was number 1 today, so that was pretty cool. http://www.clearancevapormax.com/nike-air-vapormax-flyknit-black-black-anthracite-clearance.html . The 49ers announced the deal Thursday. San Francisco selected Kilgore in the fifth round of the 2011 draft out of Appalachian State. He has played in 33 regular-season games, plus all six playoff games the last two seasons.RICHMOND, Va. -- Joey Logano punched his ticket to NASCARS playoffs. Marcos Ambrose punched Casey Mears. Logano used a savvy move to get around three dueling former champions in the final laps Saturday night at Richmond International Raceway, and the classic short-track ending caused tempers to flare in a big way in the garage afterward. The biggest skirmish had Marcos Ambrose, who finished 18th, confronting Casey Mears, who was 19th. Mears first pushed Ambrose out of the way, and Ambrose retaliated with a thundering punch in the face that appeared to draw blood. It was unclear what caused the two to confront each other, but NASCAR vice-president of competition Robin Pemberton said the governing body would review the matter. Logano, meanwhile, needed 26 races and two trips to Richmond before putting himself in NASCARs playoff last season. There will be no such nail-biting this year, and it took just one Richmond race to make it so. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver took advantage of the late-race duel to grab the lead and then outran former champions Matt Kenseth, Jeff Gordon and Brad Keselowski. Loganos second victory essentially assured him a spot in the 10-race Chase for the championship, which he only achieved on his last chance a year ago. Loganos first career victory on the 0.75-mile oval came when Gordon, Kenseth and Keselowski raced in a triangle jockeying for position, and Logano went underneath all three and held off Gordon for his fifth career Sprint Cup victory. "Im more surprised than anyone else here," Logano said. "This is one of my worst tracks. ... What a crazy finish." It got crazier afterward, with Keselowski vowing to remember how Kenseth blocked him from a chance at winning. "I had a shot at winning the race and felt like he ran me off the track," said Keselowski, who was fifth on the final restart, but had the fastest car on short runs all night. "You race to win and he definitely was racing to win, but you hope when somebody races to win that they at least win the race if theyre going to wreck you or run you off the race track. "It was just a mind-boggling move to me, but I made sure I got him back and made sure my teammate could win the race. ... I thought it was uncalled for. ... Just got to put that in the bank and remember it," Keselowski said. Gordon said Kenseth was just doing what he needed to do to try and hang on. "II think Matt did what he thought he had to do to win," Gordon said. Wholesale Vapormax 3. "He started making his car real wide. He probably didnt make the guys behind him real happy." Kenseth had come from nowhere after lurking in the back of the top 10 all race long, suddenly charging through the field and passing Gordon to grab the lead with 38 laps to go. It was his first lead. "I was trying to win the race. I think thats what all five of us were trying to do," Kenseth said. Logano, meanwhile, looks forward to the next 15 races knowing hes already got a spot in the playoffs. "At this point, we really have nothing to lose," Logano said of the remaining 15 races before the Chase field is set. "Its all about going for wins and having fun out there and making sure were ready for when the Chase starts." Gordon said the three-way battle helped create the opening for Logano. "I was really just trying to battle with those guys to get the best finish that we could," Gordon said. "(Logano) was in a great position while we were all sitting there sliding around battling it out. To come home second is still a great finish." Kyle Busch, never in contention, rose to finish third, followed by Keselowski and Kenseth. "That last restart was intense. ... I just drove by everybody," Busch said. Gordon, who led 173 laps, and teammate Earnhardt both seemed poised to challenge at the end, but after the final restart, Team Penske teammates Logano and Keselowski became the ones to watch. Their cars had easily been the fastest on fresh rubber all night, so much so that Gordon said, "I just had to let the 2 and the 22 go right by me because they were so fast" on fresh tires. Signs of the wild ending may have come very early. Clint Bowyer started third and hoped a return to one of his best tracks would allow him to put last September behind him. That was when Bowyers intentional spin late in the last race before the playoffs jumbled the finishing order, and the drivers who made the Chase, leading to a NASCAR investigation. Instead of a clean run, Bowyer hit rookie pole-sitter Kyle Larson on the opening lap, sending Larson spinning. He also twice pitted under a green flag, right before a caution flag came out, and was battling Danica Patrick for 38th place when a fire in his engine ultimately caused him to park for the night. ' ' '

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